Pharma companies worldwide are estimated to produce 11.4bn COVID-19 vaccine doses by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs.
The forecast means that three-quarters of the population will get two doses as required, although analysts reckon the global year-end vaccination rate is likely to be lower than that.
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This will be due to the time lag between production and vaccinations, global distribution challenges, potentially booster shots in rich countries, and limited vaccine demand in some countries.
As a result, 50% of the world’s population is set to be immunised before 2022, the investment bank said, which corresponds to nearly 70% of the world population excluding children in emerging economies.
Immunity levels are set to accelerate sharply and that the global recovery will broaden beyond the US and the UK, including in emerging economies, in coming months.